Friday, August 15, 2014

MIT patent litigation study

A study by MIT business school professor Catherine Tucker claims that litigation by patent assertion entities is hurting innovation, particularly with tech startups. Tucker writes that over the last five years, venture capital investment "would have likely been $21.772 billion higher" if not "for [patent] litigation brought by frequent litigators."

"Frequent litigators" are defined as entities that file twenty or more patent lawsuits (per year?). They are supposed to represent patent-assertion entities (trolls), which are hard to identify by name because they often act under shell companies. According to a study on the patent quality of frequent litigators, the "most litigated" (eight times or more) non-practicing entity patents lose more than 90% of the time in court.

The study claims to be conservative because, according to another study, some patent assertion entities, which are more selective at litigating or more successful at licensing, file less lawsuits. However, frequent litigators would probably include a few litigious entities that are not patent assertion entities. I'm unsure about whether this includes universities, but I suspect that universities do not file as many patent lawsuits.

The study used regression analysis to find a strong negative correlation between litigation by frequent litigators and venture capital investment. The lost investment was determined to fall within a 95% confidence interval of $8.1 billion to $41.8 billion.

An earlier study concluded that the lost U.S. capital attributable to patent trolling was $29 billion in 2011 and over $500 billion in the 1990-2010 period. A VentureBeat article summarizes some statistics. For example, patent trolling cost the economy $69 billion in 2010 according to another study.

As I understand it, these studies together suggest that frequent litigators (who are likely patent trolls) often hurt the economy (in legal costs and in lost investment or capital) with litigations over poor patents (that lose more than 90% of the time in court).

While we wait for Congress to act with patent reform, it's important to see that the numbers match anecdotal evidence from news articles reporting startups being sued by trolls.

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